Week 9 Fantasy Studs and Duds

I was watching Monday nights game between the Falcons and Saints when I saw something incredibly uncommon.  Mind you this can only happen in the gambling world.  Once upon a time … I had 100 dollars on the Saints to cover -10.5.  With less then two minutes left in the game the Saints have the ball and can essentially run out the clock.  Well instead of taking a knee and punting with less than 20 seconds left, Sean Payton calls a running play.  On that play the Saints center goes down with an injury – Saints have to take an automatic timeout.  They run the ball again.  Tick, Tick, Tick.  On third down the running back, Mike Bell, naturally fumbles the football.  The Falcons recover with about 1:15 left in the game.  Since they are down by 11, they need a field goal and a TD (with a two-point conversion) in either order.  The Falcons throw a couple incomplete passes to make it third and ten.  On third down Matt Ryan throws a 17 yard pass to Mike Jenkins along the sideline.  The refs call it incomplete.  Whew!  Only one play left, stop them and we win.  Hold on, wait a second … Whistle blows.  Booth review on the previous pass.  As it so happens, Jenkins seemed to have got his toes in.  Call reversed!  First down Falcons.  A couple incomplete and short passes later lead to a 43 yard Jason Elam field goal.  Saints win by 8 and in turn I make my bookie take me out to a steak dinner instead of the usual Thursday breakfast.  The End.

4 good bets (HOME team in CAPS)

- Texans +9 at COLTS

The Colts just lost a starting CB and SS for the year.  They are devastated with injuries and do not forget – the Texans are not terrible.  Colts 28 – 24.   

- Packers -9.5 at BUCS

Rule number one: Bet the opposing team against the Bucs each week.  Packers 37 – 10.

- Chargers +5 at GIANTS

Amazing fact: In the Giants last three loses they have not covered an additional 10 points in their favor for each week.  Chargers 24 – 21 

TURN THE KEY (Bet of the Week)

- Cowboys +3 at EAGLES

I said it, F**k It.  Cowboys 31 – 24

Now onto my weekly fantasy predictions.  As always studs are outside of top 50, and duds are inside.

Studs:

1 – Matt Hasselbeck (QB – Seahawks)

Hasselbeck to me is the perfect fantasy fill-in QB.  If you get him on his good weeks (usually about 4 per season), he can give you quality performances.  This is one of those weeks.  I rather have him this week then McNabb, Palmer, Flacco and Cutler to name a few.  He played pretty well against my Cowboys last week, and he will conquer the lowly Lions.  Expect 295 yards 3 TD’s, 0 INT’s

2 – Jamaal Charles (RB – Chiefs)

Like I said earlier in the season, it was only a matter of time before LJ lost his job.  Here’s betting he does not get it back.  Fantasy owners that handcuffed Johnson are finally rejoicing.  Charles will burst on the scene in a big way this week against an overrated Jaguars defense.  Expect 145 total yards, TD

3 – Malcolm Floyd (WR – Chargers)

With the departure of Chris Chambers, Floyd has a chance to shine in the Chargers offense.  He is a big target for Philip Rivers, and he becomes a must-start this week against a poor Giants pass defense.  Teams are starting to throw the ball at will against the Giants.  Big day ahead for the Chargers offense in the Meadowlands.  Expect 90 yards, TD

4 – Kevin Walter (WR – Texans)

The Texans just lost their number two receiving threat for the season.  Cui Bono – Kevin Walter.  He will be Matt Schaub’s number two option on an offense that loves to throw the football.  He becomes a top 20 WR for the rest of the year.  Expect 105 yards, TD

5 – Ben Watson (TE – Pats)

He is available in over 50 percent of leagues.  The Dolphins will be keying on Welker and Moss as all teams do.  Since their safeties play like they have money on the opposing team each week, do not be shocked to see Watson have a few big plays.  He is a good spot start this week if your normal starting TE has a bad matchup.  Expect 65 yards, TD

Duds:

1 – Donovan McNabb (QB – Eagles)

This is one of those games where I would not bench McNabb, but I think he will have more turnovers then touchdowns.  The Cowboys defense has been playing exceedingly well as of late.  They will continue to pressure McNabb this week and maybe Ken Hamlin will finally earn his gamecheck.  I think the Cowboys are ready for this game.  If they win this game get ready for ESPN to starting driving the bandwagon.  Expect 268 yards, TD, 3 Turnover’s

2 – Cedric Benson (RB – Bengals)

If I put him on this list a few years ago no one would have been surprised.  To his credit, he really has become a good back the past year, and I really like this Bengals team.  Nevertheless, Benson will struggle on Sunday.  If the Bengals win, it will be through the air.  Expect 70 total yards, 0 TD’s

3 – LaDainian Tomlinson (RB – Chargers)

The Chargers will dominate in the passing game, but LT will have trouble getting the running game going.  I hope I am wrong with this prediction because LT is on my team, but I fear I will be right.  Do I really put Jeremy Maclin in as my flex instead?  That is a conflict of interest that will lose more fantasy weeks for me more often than not.  Bold prediction – he starts on my team, but vindicates my duds list.  Expect 60 total yards, 0 TD’s

4 – Brandon Marshall (WR – Broncos)

He is playing against the Steelers tough pass defense this week.  I think the Broncos run is over.  They are an average to good team but they are not among the leagues best.  The Steelers will mirror the Ravens gameplan and win convincingly on MNF.  As long as Kyle Orton is the Broncos QB, then Marshall will never again be an elite fantasy receiver.  Expect 55 yards, 0 TD’s

5 – Tony Gonzalez (TE – Falcons)

The Falcons are going to win big against the Redskins, but I think Gonzo fails to see the end-zone.  Although the team is quite inept, the Redskins defense is actually pretty good.  Expect the Falcons to score via the wide receivers and running game this week.  Expect 53 yards, 0 TD’s

Tags: Ben Watson, Cedric Benson, Donovan McNabb, Jamaal Charles, Kevin Walter, LaDainian Tomlinson, Malcolm Floyd, Matt Schaub, Mike Bell, Mike Jenkins, NFL, Philip Rivers, Sean Payton, Tony Gonzalez